I’ve been following politics in a more serious way now for the last 8 years. I was appalled that Bush was elected and horrified at the events that followed. During that time, I’ve been trying to gauge my own political radar to get a sense of a) whether my sources are diverse and informative enough, b) if I’m picking the most valuable information up from those sources, and c) if I’m drawing the right conclusions based on those sources.
I’ve been trying to intuit my way through what’s been happening the last few weeks with Palin and Obama and the discouraging poll slippage, and here’s what I’ve come up with so far. We’ll see how accurate it is.
The tipping point elections has been, and always will be, the individual voter making a largely emotional decision. I got a renewed sense of this the other day talking to Janece’s dad. He’s a traditional Republican, a pro-life Evangelical, a low to medium information voter, and not inclined in any way to buy into hype-fests like the Will.I.Am “Hope” song video. He is very disappointed with Bush and has some issues that are important to him like the environment that land squarely in the moderate camp. He’s not necessarily Obama - not sure why - but he’s not decided. And my sense is at the end of the day when his pencil is hovering over his absentee ballot, he’ll place his vote almost entirely on gut instinct. And, to boot, his vote is worth two votes since Janece’s mom is not into politics and will vote how he votes.
The thing is, my (limited) intuition is that the bulk of non-activist/partisan voters are really looking for steadiness, consistency, someone they feel will take all this political stuff that they don’t want to think too much about and “do a good job with it”.
In 2000, the country was feeling flush, fat and happy. There weren’t any terrorists on our horizon and we didn’t feel like there were any pressing problems. So we picked the swaggeringly righteous cowboy instead of the triangulating policy wonk who’s boss had sexed up an intern. In 2004, we were still wounded from a vicious, completely unexpected (from a public point of view) attack, knee-deep in a war and things not settled. So we went with the cowboy again because he promised he was going to finish the job, and it didn’t help that the other guy let himself be labeled as wishy-washy and unreliable.
2008 is not a happy year. We’ve been through a rocky 8 years in foreign and domestic terms, and people are fed up with the Bush/Cheney results. They feel the country is sliding and their personal situations are unsteady at best. Our country is fundamentally changing at it’s core with more minorities than ever poised to become the voting majority. They want to feel like there’s a firm, reliable hand at the rudder to take us into the uncertain future.
The McCain camp understands this. Hence the choice of Palin. Pre-Palin, McCain was sliding pretty badly from having no emotional connection from his base and no reason for a second look from swing voters. Palin is an appeal to the emotions, pure and simple. The same voters that “felt” that Bush was “homespun straight-shooter” and Kerry was “elitist flip-flopper” are still in play this year, and they like Palin. At least for the moment… Also, McCain’s campaign has been injecting horrendous accusations into the race via a string of sleazy ads, all designed to provoke raw emotional reactions. And the Swift Boaters are gearing up millions for a late season hit on Obama linking him with inflammatory left-wing assholes like William Ayers.
The Palin pick was a brilliant short term choice to throw a massive curveball at the race, but for as much emotional euphoria as she’s brought to the race and for all the slime that McCain is attempting to stick on Obama, there’s a danger of several big downsides emerging here.
1) As the Gibson interview points out, she is completely unprepared for anything. Serious Republicans understand this and they don’t like the implications for the party. The more serious GOP, soft-decided, undecided and swing voters (Swingers) see Palin stumbling, the more uneasy they’re going to feel — not just about her, but about the man who picked her and is in charge of this ticket. The McCain camp has done a bang-up job of keeping her out of the media, but that can’t last forever. Sooner or later, she’ll have to explain herself, and by default McCain’s decision making process, to the American people. If she’s not adequately prepped, she’ll be revealed for the lightweight she is. If they wait too long, the buzz will die down beyond rebuilding and she’ll look like she’s hiding from something. In any event, this sense of hiding isn’t going to help the Swingers with their unease. Not only that, she may being to not feel “safe”, which people need to feel, and that won’t play well on McCain.
2) The media narrative is shifting. There are, and will be, more and more stories with the words “Palin” or “McCain” and “lie” in the title as time goes on. McCain’s one and only card to save him from being irrevocably linked with the losers in the White House is the “straight-talking, independant maverick” card. That’s an identity Swingers can trust, that will help them push their pencil down onto McCain’s name come voting time. He’s in serious danger of losing that position as the drumbeat of “untrustworthy” gets a head of steam under it.
3) McCain can’t seem to hold his own without Palin. He’s shaky, uninspiring, lackluster and has no draw without her on the stump. The base is voting for a Palin/McCain ticket. If this creakiness makes its way past the media cloud around Palin, I think it might be problematic in such a turbulent year. I’m not sure how ready voters are to vote for a VP instead of a president.
Here’s the risk: The tidal wave of Palin frenzy has made this election squarely about McCain at this point. Prior to both conventions, Bob Novak wrote:
I asked one of the Republican Party’s smartest, most candid heavy hitters last week whether John McCain really has a chance to defeat Barack Obama in this season of Republican discontent. “No, if the campaign is about McCain,” he replied. “Yes, if it’s about Obama.”
I think this provides a major opening for Obama, but he’s also swimming upstream as he’s done for his entire campaign.
1) If Obama’s campaign stays cool and keeps on message about the daily fears and uncertainties that people are facing in their own lives, and doesn’t get dragged down all these distracting rabbit trails the McCain camp is throwing out, that will build a single unified message behind him and a sense of undistracted focus and steadiness that will be appealing for Swingers. He’s already done a masterful job at laying the groundwork for people feeling that, despite his “inexperience”, he’s tempermentally and intellectually prepared for the job, much as Reagan was in the face of accusations that he was too lightweight. I thought it was telling how much more respect Bill O’Reilly had for Obama after he’d slugged it out with him. A great, relaxed performance in the national debates will do a lot for him in this regard as well.
2) His campaign continues to stay focused on new voter registration and getting out the vote. If more people that vote for you in the right states, you’ll win the electoral vote and the election. Period. Nothing else to say. There are thousands of Obama volunteers on the ground talking to ordinary voters, easing their fears, talking about sensible alternatives. That face time counts.
3) People seem to think that Obama should get indignant, fiery, incensed. I disagree. I think Obama HAS to feel safe and comfortable to voters, not boring or rote but calm, clear, un-dramatic, and even. We’ve had a lot of drama for eight years, and we’re tired and want someone safe to take over this ship. The Obama campaign understands this and has been laying this groundwork for months now, most masterfully at the convention. No extreme rhetoric, no sharp edges, but no softening on staking out ground that’s different from McCain and a sense of can-do and inspiration.
Also, one important point here: Obama is black. We’ve never elected a black president before, and this guy is young and an urban fella to boot. Psychologically speaking, America is being asked to choose between the all-white, all-American, backdoor neighbor ticket as symbolized by Palin, and the world-conscious, mixed-race, powerful minorities future that Obama represents. Unconsciously, voters are being asked to vote for the future this year. That’s a big leap of faith and a 180 degree backlash from the last 8 years, and progressives need to recognize how difficult that is going to be for voters. The minute that Obama comes off with even a hint of “angry”, he’s done. I used to think that race was a small point, but emotionally speaking it’s huge and although the Dem party solved it for themselves, the nation hasn’t yet done so.
After the Dem convention, the race was Obama’s. Now, it’s a real race with a lot up in the air and a lot of fluid movement in the middle between the partisans — people like Janece’s dad. I’m going to make the case to him as best I can without pressure that Obama is the safest choice this year on all fronts. Thousands of Obama volunteers will be doing the same all across the country in swing states.
There are three debates and a VP debate still to come. With only about 45 days to go, this will be a whirlwind with no clear resolution until Election Day and a major test of Obama’s presidential skill and leadership. If he can lead us all past this turbulent time, then the Presidency he will have won (with our aid!) will be a sweet and fitting reward.